Post by NHC Olney Maryland on Aug 17, 2008 13:38:05 GMT -5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL062008
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...FAY MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO
GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA IS
DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN
CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.8 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL062008
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...FAY MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO
GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA IS
DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN
CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.8 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.