Post by Nws Olney Maryland on Sept 4, 2011 10:16:54 GMT -5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
...LEE APPROACHING ATCHAFALAYA BAY...HEAVY RAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES LASHING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY
ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H AND A GUST TO
54 MPH...87 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE NOAA BUOY LOCATED
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND A
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS
METROPOLITAN AREA THIS MORNING.
A STORM SURGE OF 4 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SHELL BEACH
LOUISIANA. A SURGE HEIGHT OF 3.5 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AT NEW CANAL STATION...AND A SURGE HEIGHT OF 2 FEET
HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
...LEE APPROACHING ATCHAFALAYA BAY...HEAVY RAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES LASHING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY
ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H AND A GUST TO
54 MPH...87 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE NOAA BUOY LOCATED
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND A
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS
METROPOLITAN AREA THIS MORNING.
A STORM SURGE OF 4 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SHELL BEACH
LOUISIANA. A SURGE HEIGHT OF 3.5 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AT NEW CANAL STATION...AND A SURGE HEIGHT OF 2 FEET
HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.