TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY 7

[Nws Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 91.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOW AND
POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY CROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
MAINLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE NATIONAL
OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED
6-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
49 MPH...80 KM/H. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER JUST REPORTED 2-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF
51 MPH...81 KM/H AND A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H AT AN ELEVATION
OF 100 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM
OIL RIGS IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.