TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY 2

[Nws Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011

...IRENE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 59.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER TO CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER TO
CABO ENGANO

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON
MONDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON SUNDAY. IRENE COULD APPROACH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.