Post by Nws Olney Maryland on Aug 3, 2011 9:29:30 GMT -5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011
...EMILY CONTINUES HEADING FOR HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 68.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
HISPANIOLA...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011
...EMILY CONTINUES HEADING FOR HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 68.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
HISPANIOLA...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.