Post by Nws Olney Maryland on Aug 2, 2011 8:42:06 GMT -5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS EMILY STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY WAS A LITTLE
BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AT 800 AM AST...
1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN
AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TODAY...AND APPROACH HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE EMILY INTERACTS WITH LAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS EMILY STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY WAS A LITTLE
BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AT 800 AM AST...
1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN
AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TODAY...AND APPROACH HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE EMILY INTERACTS WITH LAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.