Post by Nws Olney Maryland on Jun 30, 2011 10:27:37 GMT -5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
100 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
...ARLENE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 97.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA
CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO
* PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF CABO ROJO MEXICO. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. ISLA LOBOS MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
42 MPH...68 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE REACHED PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ARLENE BECOMING A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS
DECREASING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
100 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
...ARLENE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 97.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA
CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO
* PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF CABO ROJO MEXICO. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. ISLA LOBOS MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
42 MPH...68 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE REACHED PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ARLENE BECOMING A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS
DECREASING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.