Post by Nws Olney Maryland on Nov 5, 2010 18:47:18 GMT -5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL212010
800 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
...TOMAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 73.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN
EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL212010
800 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
...TOMAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 73.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN
EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.