Post by Nws Olney Maryland on Nov 5, 2010 14:27:47 GMT -5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL212010
200 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
...CENTER OF TOMAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 74.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF TOMAS WILL PASS BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN HAITI AND EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL212010
200 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
...CENTER OF TOMAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 74.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF TOMAS WILL PASS BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN HAITI AND EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.