Post by James on May 2, 2008 15:41:29 GMT -5
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN KY...A SMALL PORTION
OF SERN MO...WRN TN...ERN AR...PARTS OF NRN AND WRN MS...AND NRN
LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO E TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...MID AND LOWER PORTIONS OF BOTH THE MS AND OH VALLEYS...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUES
FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE MOIST/AMPLY-UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR /500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ REMAINS IN PLACE.
AREA VWP/PROFILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW FLOW VEERING/INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT...FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ROTATION WITHIN ANY SUSTAINED
UPDRAFT. WHILE SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS
REGION...AIRMASS INSTABILITY INCREASES SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
GREATEST COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS INDICATED FROM NRN LA/W CENTRAL
MS NEWD INTO WRN TN/WRN KY.
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERAL
TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH NUMEROUS ONGOING
SUPERCELLS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...SHIFTING GRADUALLY EWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
WHILE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH A MORE
LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER POSSIBLY EVOLVING LATE.
...ERN IA EWD INTO THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NRN HALF OF IA...NEAR AND E OF SURFACE LOW NOW CENTERED OVER N
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED
ACROSS THIS REGION...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS/BRIEF
TORNADOES...ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
FURTHER E INTO IL/INDIANA/LOWER MI...A LESSER TORNADO THREAT IS
INDICATED. HOWEVER...MODELS HINT THAT STORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION...CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN KY...A SMALL PORTION
OF SERN MO...WRN TN...ERN AR...PARTS OF NRN AND WRN MS...AND NRN
LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO E TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...MID AND LOWER PORTIONS OF BOTH THE MS AND OH VALLEYS...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUES
FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE MOIST/AMPLY-UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR /500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ REMAINS IN PLACE.
AREA VWP/PROFILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW FLOW VEERING/INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT...FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ROTATION WITHIN ANY SUSTAINED
UPDRAFT. WHILE SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS
REGION...AIRMASS INSTABILITY INCREASES SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
GREATEST COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS INDICATED FROM NRN LA/W CENTRAL
MS NEWD INTO WRN TN/WRN KY.
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERAL
TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH NUMEROUS ONGOING
SUPERCELLS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...SHIFTING GRADUALLY EWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
WHILE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH A MORE
LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER POSSIBLY EVOLVING LATE.
...ERN IA EWD INTO THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NRN HALF OF IA...NEAR AND E OF SURFACE LOW NOW CENTERED OVER N
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED
ACROSS THIS REGION...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS/BRIEF
TORNADOES...ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
FURTHER E INTO IL/INDIANA/LOWER MI...A LESSER TORNADO THREAT IS
INDICATED. HOWEVER...MODELS HINT THAT STORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION...CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.