Post by Nws Olney Maryland on Nov 5, 2010 14:18:52 GMT -5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL212010
800 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
...TOMAS SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN JAMAICA AND HAITI...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 36
HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF TOMAS
WILL PASS NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA OR WESTERN HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR
OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY.
RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE A HURRICANE AS THE
CENTER PASSES HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...
195 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN HAITI THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL212010
800 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
...TOMAS SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN JAMAICA AND HAITI...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 36
HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF TOMAS
WILL PASS NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA OR WESTERN HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR
OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY.
RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE A HURRICANE AS THE
CENTER PASSES HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...
195 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN HAITI THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.