Post by Nws Olney Maryland on Nov 5, 2010 14:17:45 GMT -5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL212010
500 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
...TOMAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH RAINBANDS AFFECTING
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 76.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 36
HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE
CENTER PASSES HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL212010
500 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
...TOMAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH RAINBANDS AFFECTING
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 76.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 36
HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE
CENTER PASSES HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.