TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY 3

[Nws Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL212010
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...TOMAS NEARING BARBADOS...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES TO A HURRICANE
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS
WILL APPROACH BARBADOS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT PASSES
NEAR BARBADOS AND MOVES ACROSS THE OTHER WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

BARBADOS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/HR...IN A SQUALL
EARLIER THIS EVENING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS
BARBADOS SOON AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BARBADOS EARLY SATURDAY AND
WITHIN THE REMAINDER OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER SATURDAY
MORNING.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.