TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY 14

[Nws Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL182010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WIND GUSTS TO 68 MPH...110
KM/HR REPORTED NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 82.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
CENTERED OVER CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST.
PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL
AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. LA PALMA NEAR PUERTO
ESPERANZA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...110 KM/HR...AND BAHIA
HONDA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST. WINDS COULD INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.