TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 ADSVISORY 3

[NHC Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL162010
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA
TONIGHT AND BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN BANDS WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.