TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY 7

[NHC Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL132010
400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 91.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM BARRA
DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...KARL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KARL COULD BECOMES A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.