TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY 6A

[NHC Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL132010
100 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...KARL MOVING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 91.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...KARL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OVER WATER
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND KARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.