TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY 6

[NHC Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI F/OLNEY MD AL132010
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 90.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KARL SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEARING THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS OVER WATER JUST WEST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. KARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE
METEOROLOGICAL STATION AT CHETUMAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
MEASURED NEARLY 7 INCHES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KARL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.