TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY 4

[NHC Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL132010
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 88.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
THEN EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA AND WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TODAY.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING
WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE
TODAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.