TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY 3A

[NHC Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL132010
700 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...CENTER OF KARL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 87.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KARL COULD
APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WHERE KARL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT BANCO CHINCHORRO
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR...AND A WIND
GUST OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.