TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY 1

[NHC Olney Maryland]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

...TROPICAL STORM KARL FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE MEXICO/
BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM KARL. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL
WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

AT THIS TIME...KARL IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE... A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.