Post by NHC Olney Maryland on Sept 3, 2010 14:29:55 GMT -5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL072010
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
...EARL CONTINUES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 72.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINA
BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD
TO ECUM SECUM
* TIDNISH TO LISMORE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO LISMORE
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE VERY NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT AND ON THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED
REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST
FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD AND REACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION
TO THE LEFT WOULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER
MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL AND
COASTAL MAINE.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL072010
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
...EARL CONTINUES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 72.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINA
BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD
TO ECUM SECUM
* TIDNISH TO LISMORE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO LISMORE
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE VERY NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT AND ON THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED
REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST
FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD AND REACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION
TO THE LEFT WOULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER
MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL AND
COASTAL MAINE.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.