Post by NHC Olney Maryland on Aug 31, 2010 10:30:55 GMT -5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI /OLNEY MD AL072010
100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 66.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...
AND PASS EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PUERTO RICO
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI /OLNEY MD AL072010
100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 66.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...
AND PASS EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PUERTO RICO
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.