Post by NHC Olney Maryland on Aug 30, 2010 11:11:29 GMT -5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL072010
200 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
...CENTER OF EARL PASSING NORTH OF BARBUDA...RAINBANDS APPROACHING
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 61.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY LATE MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL072010
200 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010
...CENTER OF EARL PASSING NORTH OF BARBUDA...RAINBANDS APPROACHING
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 61.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY LATE MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.