Post by NHC Olney Maryland on Aug 30, 2010 11:10:14 GMT -5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.
OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.
OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.