Post by NHC Olney Maryland on Jul 1, 2010 11:19:42 GMT -5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OLNEY MD AL012010
800 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
...ALEX ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TEXAS COAST WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS EVENING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES...25 KM...EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALEX
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL BE
MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COASTLINE...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
MEXICO WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS.
ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OLNEY MD AL012010
800 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
...ALEX ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 97.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TEXAS COAST WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS EVENING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES...25 KM...EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALEX
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL BE
MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COASTLINE...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
MEXICO WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS.
ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.