Post by NHC Olney Maryland on Sept 15, 2010 16:31:19 GMT -5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL132010
400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
...KARL WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 89.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF KARL WILL EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND KARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING
WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL/OLNEY MD AL132010
400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
...KARL WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 89.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KARL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF KARL WILL EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND KARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING
WAVES...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.